Google has never been good with estimates. Whether they try to give you an estimate of how many clicks you’ll get, your average CPC, position or even the number of impressions, over and over again, the only way their numbers are consistant are by being consistantly wrong.
Google has two ways of analyzing your campaign budgets. One is their Recommended Budget and the other is their Daily Budget Analysis. I took a quick look at both for one of my campaigns and like most estimates, they were not accurate. What’s more troubling is the fact that they don’t even recommend the same amount. One recommends a round, Google-like number of $500/day while the other recommends $903.99/day.
This is just another example of why you shouldn’t rely on Google to come up with your estimates but instead, to make them yourself. Take a look at your historical data and how it’s trending. Take into account any upcoming “events” that can affect traffic/conversions such as holidays or offline advertising launches.
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